A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that divided the nation and unleashed chaos, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially contentious and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Many are for or against the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in universities but very few government figures or activists want to engage even with the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author supports unification or the current situation. They composes two essays that strive for objectivity in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling economic and social data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions range over identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented the writer. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate report they favour unity but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "One side will succeed here and somebody will in the end lose but both parties has possesses important lessons to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster should join the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
